Weekly Crypto Forecast: Bitcoin ATH, Aster & more!

little break from the crypto space over the weekend. And so I just I just completely missed it. And I woke up this morning again, checked and I was like, "Oh, wow. Okay, cool. A new alltime high." That's the thing, right, for us when the bull market comes, you don't get enough time to sleep because FOMO, you always are worried like uh what's going to happen when when when I'm sleeping. So when the bull market comes, you don't sleep. When the bare market comes, that's when you sleep, but you stress. So Exactly. that that is a working crypto for you. But yeah, anyways, I'm happy. Very good. Glad to hear. So, this is of course the weekly crypto forecast, the show where we bring you all the latest alpha you need to know this week from the wild world of crypto and digital assets. I'm your host for today's episode, Jonathan. I'm the content lead here at Coin Market Cap. And with me as always is Alice, whose voice you've just heard, who is our research lead here at Coin Market Cap. So to make sure that you never miss an episode of the show, be sure to download the Coin Market Cap app and turn on your notifications to be alerted. You can always catch today's live as well as every other previous live if you come in late or you want to listen to it again or whatever the case may be by going to coinarketcap.com/ communitylives. And you can also listen to them after the fact on your favorite podcast platform including Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Hope everyone in the chat is doing well. I see some people saying hi here. Bitcoin all-time high. Good morning. Good morning back to you. Assad Mimmude. I hope I'm saying your name correctly. Hello. Hello to everybody. Somebody's making fun of me for missing the all-time high. I deserve that. I will accept that. I will accept your your laughter. And yeah. So, are you ready to jump into kind of how the macro is doing or do you did you have anything else you wanted to uh discuss here before we get the show started? No, let's look at the numbers, shall we? All right, let's do it. As we speak, the total crypto market cap is at 4.27 trillion USD. That is up 1.6% for the past uh 24 hours. Um, and the uh trade volume is very active. It's a 171 billion USD at the moment, although it's down slightly for about 5.8% for the past 24 hours, but it's not it's generally on the healthy side and given where the market is. So, as we speak, the uh BTC dominance is uh at 58.2%. Ether dominance is coming back up at 13%. Bitcoin right now is giving us 124,654 USD. That's up 9% for the past seven days and we did celebrate another all-time high uh for Bitcoin price last week above uh sorry over the weekend above uh 125k generally speaking I mean this is the momentum you are getting coming into October so the season has started guys and ether is not shy of the growth either right now ether is 4,650 USD that's up 10.8% 8% for the past seven days. A few great news about Ethereum actually uh coming up that we're seeing after he says is topping up. Bit mine is topping up for example all of those as well. And on top of that we have a few other all-time highs. BMBB we just witnessed it today uh celebrated another all-time high of BNB at 100,237 um USD. That's just two hours ago for us. And that would put BMBB uh market cap to7 uh 170 billion USD. That is an impressive uh growth that we just witnessed today. On top of that, Salana is doing really well as well at 233 USD and a few other coins. If we look at the top performers for the past seven days in the large cap space, leading the pack is Zcash. actually is up 133% for the past 7 days and the uh the just a very quick take on Zcash because it is announced on the back of a Gscale Zcash trust launched on uh October 2nd. So that is a main driver of the growth there. And for for informations like this, you know, when you are saying a coin is pumping, you just click on the coin page and underneath the price chart, you will have CMCAI analyzing all of the recent price movements, TA uh community sentiment and the latest news on that for you guys. So don't worry about that. And coming back to this, the top gainers leading the package Zcash as we discussed number two is SPX 696900. So that is also up 48% for the past seven days. And then Pancake uh is number three at 3.75 USD up 43%. Uh DEXE that's also up 26%. Optos number five is up 24.6% for the past seven days. So overall I think we're seeing a very good uh momentum across the alt space. Although one thing interesting to notice though, if you look on coin market cap homepage, you'll see that the fair and greed is only at 59. We are in neutral with all these alltime highs, guys. We are actually in the neutral zone. You know what? Because if you if you step back a little bit and look at the numbers, it makes sense because altcoin season right now is only giving me a 66 out of 100. It was over 80 a few weeks ago if you guys remember. But actually, you know what? Yes, we're celebrating a few all-time highs in the large cap space. It's exciting, but overall the markets still have a lot of room to catch up and that's great news because going to Q4, going to October, we are going to uh have a great run ahead of us. So that's the overall review of the numbers at the moment. Thank you for sharing. Yeah, it's it's uh for me kind of hard to be anything but bullish at the moment. I mean, given everything that you just shared, I know we've got a lot of news to get into, stories to get into, but yeah, I mean, just given the fact that again, if we go back to the homepage here and you look at just everything here on the 7-day chart with a few exceptions is green, right? Very exciting. Some of the top uh market cap coins are in the double digits in greens, including uh Ethereum, BNB. The fear and greed index is still in neutral. Like it just seems I I don't know. It's it's just hard to be hard to not be excited for whatever we're going into next uh and wherever the market is going to take us. And of course, this is a perfect chance to just remind everybody that nothing we say in the show is financial advice and you should always do your own research. But yeah, that said, I'm still pretty excited. That's great. That's awesome because yes, we all know that Bitcoin is alltime high, but are you guys curious about the reasons? So uh I think today Jonathan has prepared some really awesome TA for us later as well. But to get through on the news side, I think for BTC all-time highs, there are three main drivers in the space and number one is US government shutdown effects that we saw because of the budget issue. we have saying the the whole the US government shutdown and we've seen the uh we last week we discuss we discussed the impact on this a little bit but also if you look across the market right now a few assets like gold have been receiving positive uh uplift from this impact. So US government shutdown effect is number one driver here. Number two is ETF inflows. I have a piece of news to and some data to share with you uh you guys from coin coin share side. And number three is a bullish seasonality. So guys don't forget right normally um uh Bitcoin has been receiving really good performance in Q4 just the seasonality of it and driving the momentum we started to see that already. So those from a news perspective I guess just echoing what Jonathan said autumn high is very exciting and this is what I'm seeing from the micro side. Yeah, it's it's kind of interesting. You were mentioning the Q4 seasonality. I think it was just a couple weeks ago, maybe the last time that the two of us were on because it was uh Gabriel was on last week where we were talking about the September slump or maybe it was two weeks before that, but I remember recently talking with with I think it was you about um yeah, this this sort of September slump where everybody in September kind of gets concerned that the market's not going to continue and the bull market is over and prices can't go up anymore. And then here we are in Q4 in October and it sort of this week at least it feels like feels like we're back and people I mean we're not even into December yet where we often get this you know quote unquote Santa Claus rally and I believe the last time I was here also I shared a chart that showed that that Q4 like you were saying has the highest on average returns out of any quarter of the year. And so it's almost like again this is not prescriptive advice. History is not prescriptive but it can help you understand patterns and quite often if we can just hold out until Q4 you know some of our our hopes uh and we'll be will be brought back and our fears will be assued if that's the correct term. Yeah, definitely echoing what you said and just to give the data support there as well. Uh you're right about Q4 because on average Q4 has been giving us 79% of returns for that quarter uh from 2013 up until this year every year on average 79% and the u median of that number is 47%. So stew overall is the most positive quarter for us. However, just one thing to note for this year because the market is so different now. We have so many ETF players at the table, right? So, just remember one thing which is uh for some ETF holders aka the investment accounts, they do uh have the tendency to sell their portfolio at the end of the year for tax rebalances, capital uh gain offset etc. So all of all of those things just bear in mind we we might have some analysis coming up on that in-depth dive of what potentially this Bitcoin ETF um sale and of your sale could impact for the BTC price for us. So I think that that's just one small point to uh to make here. But yeah, overall I think Jonathan I think it's really good even where the economic setup is for us. Um it is good news as well. Yes, and I uh I definitely agree with that. So, you mentioned that you had some uh numbers like a a coin share report, some numbers you wanted to run us through in terms of the ETF inflows. Yeah, let's do that. Uh I as I mentioned ETF inflows, we've seen impressive impressive inflows from um Wall Street side on this. So crypto funds they smashed records with six close to six billion USD inflows driven by employment and shutdown worries. Right? So those are the US government shutdown wars that we just talked about across the board. Uh this sort of concerns on the weake economic data side has led us uh to have that strong inflows. US they led the record uh 5 billion USD inflows followed by Switzerland that's another 563 million um and Germany 312 million USD BTC is the number one winner of those uh inflows 3.55 billion USD went into BTC ether saw another 1.48 for 8 billion USD injection and Salana uh 706 million USD injection and XRP 219 million injection. So those were you can tell like the interest from uh Wall Street aka institutional investors. Um BTC is still the number one by far the number one. Ether is probably half of that interest and then followed by Salana XRP. This seems to be still the most wanted tokens by institutional investors. So yeah, I think one thing that we also saw from this coin share ETF inflow data suggesting is you know try they have concerns of this US government shutdown. They have concerns of this weak employment data and yes they are right about it. Why? Because shocking shocking data has reviewed that yes we have BTC hates alltime high. The USD is on track for the worst year since 1973. What we mean by that is because of inflation uh all of this uh recent inflations that we've seen, but also the refl uh inflation rebounds and the weak labor markets, the Fed is cutting rates. Uh USD is now on track for the worst year since 1973, down over 10% year to date. And USD has lost about 40% of its purchasing power since 2000. Since 2000 for the past 25 years, it's lost 40% of its purchasing power. That is incredible. Whereas at the same time, if you look everything on BTC terms, no asset is outperforming BTC, of course. So, I think it's just such sometimes we just have to pause and think to think, wow, that's like what a great tool that we have for this inflation hedge. and we understand that so do institutional institutional investors. So maybe that's why we're seeing some of this uh very strong ETF inflows and demand. Yeah, that makes sense to me and I think it it highlights a point that not a lot of people think about.