Unfortunately, I Was Right

The PrimeTime| 00:13:44|Jun 10, 2026
Chapters9
The speaker reflects on making a bold online prediction about tech and token costs, setting the stage for future forecasts and commentary on the AI token economy.

A sharp, irreverent look at how token budgets and AI costs could reshape work culture, with five bold predictions about the near future.

Summary

The PrimeTime’s host riffs on a hotly debated premise: as AI usage explodes and token costs rise, traditional budgeting and engineering economics may crumble. He kicks off with a bold analogy about a $1.3 million/month AI operation and how token efficiency could become the new battleground for cost control. From there, he lays out five increasingly wild predictions, starting with token-for-equity shuffles in AI labs and moving toward open-source token donations, token-based budgeting at the individual and team level, and even a futuristic rework of agile called token poker. He sketches a future where corporate hierarchies sprout token managers, and where “paired prompting” and long-running AI tasks become the new norms. Throughout, he references real-world voices like Sam Altman and Microsoft’s org-chart implications to ground the discussion in present tensions. The mid-roll sponsor segment plugs Composer 25 Fast from Cursor, then the host returns to make the more audacious forecasts, culminating in a cautionary note about tech hype and organizational risk. The tone remains provocative, blending humor with a sober warning that some predictions might rewrite how companies spend and govern AI projects within the next year or two.

Key Takeaways

  • Prediction one: AI labs will experiment with trading tokens for equity, redefining how ownership and investment are allocated in AI projects.
  • Prediction two: companies will create a token budget for employees, tying tokens spent to performance bonuses and overall efficiency.
  • Prediction three: token-based planning could replace agile planning poker, substituting token estimates for feature sizing in sprints.
  • Prediction four: organizations may split AI budgets by team and org-wide budgets, creating new friction with middle managers negotiating allocations.
  • Prediction five: ‘paired prompting’ and long-running AI tasks may dominate workflows as teams seek to optimize token usage and reduce waste.
  • These shifts could trigger new job roles (token-budget managers) and force a reevaluation of how value is measured in software delivery.

Who Is This For?

Essential viewing for tech leaders, software engineers, and product managers watching how token economics and AI agent usage might reshape budgeting, governance, and agile processes over the next 12–18 months.

Notable Quotes

""Prediction number one, some of these AI labs, they're actually going to attempt to trade tokens for equity.""
The host frames the first bold forecast about token-backed equity.
""You are going to be able to donate a million tokens from your budget into open source so they can run CI or these other various tools...""
Illustrates the open-source token donation idea as a near-term possibility.
""We're going to replace agile with token agile... token poker""
Predicts a riff on planning poker using token estimates instead of time-based planning.
""there's going to become a fourth category that's going to happen, which is token budget""
Introduces the concept of individual token budgets as a new benefit/constraint.
""the adoption of AI agents into software development will be one of the most costly mistakes in the field's history""
References a cautionary view about AI agent adoption from a noted tech commentator.

Questions This Video Answers

  • How will token budgets change how software teams plan work and measure productivity?
  • What is token poker and could it really replace planning poker in agile?
  • Could token donations to open source become standard for AI tooling costs?
  • Will future org structures include token budget managers or token governance roles?
  • Why might Microsoft-like org charts struggle with decentralized token spending across teams?
The PrimeTimeAI budgetstoken economicstoken governanceplanning pokertoken pokeragile vs token-based planningAI agentsMicrosoft org structureopen source token donations
Full Transcript
You see this face? That's the face of a man who just made a prediction on the internet for tech and got it right. Let's just pretend we're a big tech Google company. It costs $50,000 a month and you're spending $1.3 million a month on just AI agents. To replace those with just engineers would well that kind of math you I mean it's a number. That kind of math you can't just do off the top of your head. So let's just say 30 engineers 30 engineers worth of people working on something. You can't just do this for every single project. Your company at some point's going to go, "Okay, time out. We've made a mistake. We have decided that we let you use all the tokens you want. That's bad. We're going to go back to the old days. Who's the most token efficient?" And that, my friends, that prediction came right just a short 8 days later. Oh, what do you say? What is this right here? Oh, is that is that Sam Alman saying something? He also said the cost question came up quite suddenly at the beginning of 2026. The issue never came up. Alman said people were totally happy uh with the amount they were spending. He said now AI costs are a huge issue. I have correctly predicted the future in only eight days and so obviously off this high off the high of the Uber COO saying yeah token max token maxing I can't justify it. I don't even know. I can't even tell what features are being made with this token maxing. But nonetheless, after this amazing tech prediction, I have decided that I'm going to make five more predictions. Now, one of them is going to be heartwarming. One of them is going to be what I think is a good outcome, and then the other three nightmare scenarios. I think all of these are going to come true within the next 6 to 12 months. Okay? And and here's the other thing. None of these predictions involve AGI. All right? They all involve what seems to be the most obvious answer of all time. Because when you think about it for a second, like, how did Sam not see this coming? Did he never work at a company? Has he never worked at a company where you had to argue to spend $50, but then all of a sudden every employee can just spend 10 grand on tokens? Brother, do you not know how companies operate? How did you not know this? Like, did you not have to go to a VP and argue why you actually needed an extra 8 GB of RAM? Like, did you not live a normal ass life where every last little thing was scrutinized in a $1,000 meeting to make sure you're spending $50 correct? Because that, my friends, that's the corporate lifestyle. Prediction number one, some of these AI labs, they're actually going to attempt to trade tokens for equity. Oh. Oh Yes, this actually is happening. This is not a prediction. I just thought I'd throw this in there. Just this is insane, right? Okay. So, actually token prediction number one is going to have to be opensource donations. You, yes, you are going to be able to donate a million tokens from your budget into open source so they can run CI or these other various tools that may have to be run in some sort of automated fashion which costs open source projects too much money. You can be like, "Hey, have 10 million tokens on your friend." Okay. Hey, 10 quick 10 mil for you. By the way, those 10 mil, those are Kimmy Kimmy 2 sixes. Okay, I ain't paying for I ain't paying for no Chad Jippy 55s. All right, buddy. And I believe we're going to actually see this within just the next few months. Opensource token donation. Yes, this one's kind of nice. You know, like, oh, that's is kind of sweet. You know, people out there trying to make the world a better place via tokens. Okay, that's that's kind of nice. It's something kind of like protein folding. You know how you could donate your computer? Well, now you can donate your tokens maybe to cancer research. I I know the Frontier models keep telling us how they're going to do this, but maybe you will have to be the one donating your tokens for that to happen. But either way, token donations highly likely we are going to see this in the next few months. I had to get that one out of the way because that's the nicest of all the predictions. The next predictions are going to progressively get more and more deranged. But first, big thank you to the sponsor. If you have not tried Composer 25 Fast, you have to try it. Let me give you a couple reasons. Well, first off, it's like my favorite model. It's the one I use the most. It's the one that I can do the easiest back and forth with because it's actually fast. You can actually have a back and forth with. Second, the output. It's really, really good. But third, something that I think is super important, especially today with all the news and token costs and everything, is it's actually an affordable model. You can do research, you can do debugging, you can get a whole a lot done without breaking the bank. So check out composer 25 fast from cursor. Thanks cursor. Now back to the video. Okay. Hey. So number two is kind of a bit of an interesting one. I think that when companies start hiring people, they're going to of course give them the dollar bills, right? And then they're going to also give them the stons, which of course actually just simply is dollar bills that grow. Then you know they also get like 401k matching and all these other I know that's very American of me, but you get you get some sort of benefits that go along with it. But I think there's going to become a fourth category that's going to happen, which is token budget. You're going to be given a yearly token stipent. And however you choose to spend that at your company to get your work done is on you. And if at the end of the year your token spend is less than your token budget, hey, you're going to have a bigger, fatter, nicer bonus at the end of the year because you're getting your work done and you're not costing the employer too much. This is going to obviously incentivize people to be more efficient with their tokens. Oh, you're like a super duper ultra engineer and we super believe in you. Here's a 100k budget. Blow it all you want or be super efficient with what you do. you get to keep some of that money. Incentivizing good behavior. Of course, this is a once again one of my nicer predictions, but I can actually definitely see this some sort of incentation for your behavior, not just blowing tokens like wild. Okay, we do not need 100 more dashboards. Like maybe, just maybe, planning things out and thinking about things ahead of time might be the best way. Like, dog, I know you got 10k more in you, but maybe you don't need to get those lines out right now. Okay. Hey, take a step back. It's okay, buddy. All right. We're starting to enter into the unhinged territory. All right. This is where things are going to get a little um strange. Prediction numero 3. You remember planning poker? You remember agile? Remember, you know, back in the day, long before vibe coding, you have to you used to have to like sit down and be like, hm, this task is a is a medium. And then everybody would play this game of poker, which by the way, set setting aside, that's not poker. I hated the fact that they called it planning poker because what are people bluffing? Are people actively lying to me? I'm pretty sure this is called, "Hey, G, guess a number as to what you think this is going to be. And if everybody guesses the same number, that might be just what it is." Like, it's not that's not poker. Okay, that's not poker at all. Hated that. Okay, sorry. Either way, we're going to see something a little bit different. Okay, my little vibe coders, my little sweet summer children. I know you're not familiar with that process, but new process is going to land. And it's going to look something like this. All right. Hey, we got this feature coming up. We're going to play a little bit of token poker. Uh, everybody get your cards out. How many millions of tokens do you think this this feature is going to take? Ooh, I think this is I think this could be done for 10 million Kimmy 26 tokens. Throw that throw that in the hat. Some people are going to be like, "Dude, this is 50 million Jeypity extra high fast tokens." It's okay cuz it's urgent. It's going to cost us money. You're going to have this entire session where people are going to be playing poker. Still not poker about how much a task is going to cost in tokens. You know I'm right. You know I'm actually right. In fact, I would not be shocked if someone said, "We already do this. We already token poker. We already we already put them token poker chips down, boy." Like, I already I believe it. I would be I'm completely not surprised. But we're going to replace agile with token agile. Oh my gosh, the consulting class is going to be so fun. Think about all the consulting people that are going to come into your company reintroduce a new version of agile and one of them is definitely going to be token poker. All right, so these final two predictions I think are going to be the most likely ones you're going to see pretty soon and they're going to probably re like rot the most destruction on any company. I believe these next two are effectively what George Ho was talking about when he said, "I'm calling it now. The adoption of AI agents into software development will be one of the most costly mistakes in the field's history." Now, I don't think he's saying agents are appear bad here. I think he's saying there are some companies in which they operate that are going to be absolutely insane to budgets and just just actually delete companies completely out of existence. Prediction number four, I think can be best represented by Microsoft's org chart, which is going to be instead of having a companywide budget for AI, which I think will still exist, you're going to have orgwide and teamwise budgets. And this is going to cause people to lose their damn mind because you know what's going to happen? There's going to be individuals out there just spending an enormous amount of tokens and their whole team is going to just hate that person or they're going to use their entire team's budget and have to go back to like hand coding and just absolutely being so angry at what's gone on. And you know, also what's going to happen with this idea of kind of uh this this this these organizationalwide token spreading is there's going to be middle managers that their entire job is to or like petition slashnegotiate for your team's allotted token limit. An entire management class is going to be created out of this. It is it's going to be absolutely beautiful. And then of course the natural outcropping of all of this is that there will be team members in which to save tokens are going to start pair prompting. Yes, you heard it here first folks. I predict by the end of the year you will definitely hear that phrase paired prompting. They're going to get together and really kind of hammer out the perfect context/prompting so that they don't use too many tokens to go and get the task done. And even worse, there's going to be like these team long activities, right? Cuz you know how you you can technically set up these agents to run for like a day straight or 6 hours straight or multiple days straight and they can just spend so much tokens. So what you're going to end up happening is these long running tasks, the prompts to kick them off will be like team reviewed. You're going to have people actually on GitHub knitting how the prompt was set up being like actually uh you don't need to threaten the grandma anymore and actually it's best to give them a certain personality and then somebody else is going to be like actually on archive paper number 3,972 it actually says personalities are destructive and it's just going to be this non-stop shamanlike exercise where they tell you the secrets of the prompt and your whole team is going to be just arguing over how to kick off these longunning tasks. It is going to be just a thing of beauty. All right, the fifth and and final prediction, which I think is definitely the most unfortunate because this one, if it's not already true, will be true here very very soon, which of course is that companies are going to try to reward as hard as they can the people who are using the most AI by budgeting the AI specifically for the people. So, what's going to end up happening is they're going to review all the git logs and be like, "Okay, well, Brian over there, he only produced 10,000 lines of code last month, but Timmy, Timmy produced a 100,000." You know what? Talkings for Timmy, but none for Brian. Okay? Nobody loves Brian. All right? Everybody loves Timmy. And you know, this is going to happen. They're going to find the people just simply creating the most change gets the most budget. And the thing is is that this isn't even that far from happening because if you remember ClickUp from doing some of the layoffs, one of their big things is the 100x organization. They're like they're like setting forth kind of this idea that there will exist organizations that have 100x output. Well, how are you going to get a 100x output? You're going to have to have an enormous budget. And once obviously the budget hits the fan, people are going to go, "Okay, we need to reduce who gets to be a part of this organization. Who produces the most co?" And it's just naturally going to happen. They're going to find the biggest slop cannons and they're going to put them into positions where they get effectively unlimited budget. I genuinely believe there's going to be a company that is going to so thoroughly code themselves into hell that they're actually going to fail as a company due to how much crap and burden they have put on themselves with the promises of the magical sand rock computer talkie thingies. I don't even know what happened there. I just got I got all my words mixed up. Okay. I was coming in with you know like the the magical sand that talks to you. I don't even know what to call it. What do you call it? They're going to they're going to get owned because somebody told them that the magic rocks actually can predict the future and will in fact lead them to salvation. And instead, it just led them to hundreds of thousands if not millions of lines of burden and not technical advantage. The name is the primogen.

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